10 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1591
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Rulc
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1584
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Heinzl🌟Heinzl covers set handicap as underdog 71% (31)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H12-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.