10 Jul · 09:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SB
🇺🇦Serhii Balabei
ELO 1705
FormLWLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Horokh
RH
🇺🇦Roman Horokh
ELO 1777
FormLWLWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Horokh
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H143-81
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (143-81)