10 Jul · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1511
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Yakimenko
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1493
FormLLLLW
52%
48%
🌟Yakimenko stays under total as favourite 65% (31)
Fair odds · Yakimenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H6-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.