10 Jul · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1597
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Riadynskyi
AL
🇺🇦Anatolii Lievshin
ELO 1568
FormWLWLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Lievshin🌟Lievshin covers set handicap as underdog 65% (46)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H7-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.