10 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1451
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ovsiienko
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1486
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Ovsiienko stays under total as favourite 68% (47)
Fair odds · Ovsiienko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H12-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.