10 Jul · 09:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LH
🇺🇦Lukas Heinzl
ELO 1584
FormLWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Heinzl
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1513
FormLWLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Heinzl rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (87)
Fair odds · Heinzl
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+71
H2H14-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+71)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-10)