10 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1474
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polak
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1454
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plyska🌟Polak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 7% (15)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H7-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.