10 Jul · 12:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1558
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adam
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1542
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rochowanski🌟Rochowanski covers set handicap as underdog 64% (14)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+16
H2H3-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.