10 Jul · 09:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OM
🇺🇦Ondrej Mezera
ELO 1539
FormLWLLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Rulc
LR
🇺🇦Lukas Rulc
ELO 1591
FormLWLWL
44%
56%
🔥 Underdog lean · Mezera🌟Mezera goes over total as underdog 78% (69)
Fair odds · Rulc
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 72% · 1.38· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+52
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+52)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)