10 Jul · 12:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1597
FormLWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Derevianko
AD
🇺🇦Andrii Derevianko
ELO 1601
FormWLLWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Derevianko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 6%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H24-58
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.