10 Jul · 10:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VS
🇺🇦Vladyslav Stukalov
ELO 1453
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Ovsiienko
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1486
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Ovsiienko stays under total as favourite 68% (47)
Fair odds · Ovsiienko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H24-35
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.