10 Jul · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1474
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Tuma
LT
🇺🇦Ladislav Tuma
ELO 1500
FormWLLLW
47%
53%
🌟Polak covers set handicap as underdog 76% (17)
Fair odds · Tuma
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.