10 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OM
🇺🇦Ondrej Mezera
ELO 1539
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Mezera
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1513
FormLWLWW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Mezera rarely covers set handicap as favourite 31% (16)
Fair odds · Mezera
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H9-25
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.