10 Jul · 13:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1558
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Dobias
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1636
FormLLWWL
42%
58%
🔥 Underdog lean · Adam
Fair odds · Dobias
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H24-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-18)