10 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JB
🇺🇦Jan Blazek
ELO 1381
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Melisek
MM
🇺🇦Marian Melisek
ELO 1424
FormLWLLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Blazek🌟Melisek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 16% (19)
Fair odds · Melisek
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H14-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.