11 Jul · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JS
🇺🇦Jan Seeman
ELO 1476
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Holub
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1513
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Holub
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+37
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.