11 Jul · 08:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DA
🇺🇦Denis Aldayev
ELO 1341
FormLWLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kolos
OK
🇺🇦Oleksandr Kolos
ELO 1423
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kolos
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+82
H2H20-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-13)