11 Jul · 09:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1578
FormWWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tymofeev
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1570
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Kovshun covers set handicap as underdog 76% (46)
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H17-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.