11 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MV
🇺🇦Milan Vydra
ELO 1458
FormWLWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Cmil
MC
🇺🇦Marcel Cmil
ELO 1482
FormWWWLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vydra🌟Vydra covers set handicap as underdog 78% (18)
Fair odds · Cmil
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H11-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.