11 Jul · 08:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1520
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Juppa
JJ
🇺🇦Jachym Juppa
ELO 1526
FormWWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Juppa
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H8-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.