11 Jul · 09:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1388
FormLWWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stopin
OS
🇺🇦Oleh Stopin
ELO 1460
FormLLWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Stopin
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+72
H2H27-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+72)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (27-2)