11 Jul · 07:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1388
FormLWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Ponomarenko
SS
🇺🇦Serhii Semenets
ELO 1385
FormLWLLL
50%
50%
🌟Ponomarenko rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (19)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H11-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.