11 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YV
🇺🇦Yurii Volkov
ELO 1582
FormWWWWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Volkov
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1578
FormWWLLL
50%
50%
🌟Tymofeev stays under total as underdog 68% (22)
Fair odds · Volkov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~73 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+4
H2H18-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.