12 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1459
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Polak
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1453
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plyska🌟Polak rarely covers set handicap as favourite 6% (16)
Fair odds · Polak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H8-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.