12 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
TH
🇺🇦Tomas Hanke
ELO 1578
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hanke
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1540
FormWWWLL
54%
46%
🌟Jnr covers set handicap as underdog 63% (27)
Fair odds · Hanke
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H13-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.