12 Jul · 15:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LS
🇺🇦Lukas Svoboda
ELO 1560
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Svoboda
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1518
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Rejent🌟Rejent covers set handicap as underdog 65% (80)
Fair odds · Svoboda
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+42
H2H7-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.