12 Jul · 08:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kalenyk
ELO 1404
FormLWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1450
FormWLLLL
45%
55%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kalenyk
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
3-1
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+46
H2H43-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+46)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (43-23)