12 Jul · 14:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Patalakha
ELO 1470
FormLLWWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Yakimenko
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1523
FormWWWLW
44%
56%
🌟Patalakha stays under total as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Yakimenko
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-1
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+53
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)