12 Jul · 15:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JC
🇺🇦Josef Chalupa
ELO 1618
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chalupa
JS
🇺🇦Jan Krames Sr
ELO 1581
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Sr stays under total as underdog 62% (37)
Fair odds · Chalupa
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
17%
Elo Gap+37
H2H12-11
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.