12 Jul · 08:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PH
🇺🇦Pavel Hala
ELO 1506
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jnr
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1540
FormWWWLL
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hala🌟Hala covers set handicap as underdog 71% (34)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H12-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.