12 Jul · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1527
FormLLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kovalchuk
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1508
FormLWWWL
52%
48%
🌟Shchegelskyi covers set handicap as underdog 65% (51)
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+19
H2H37-63
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.