12 Jul · 16:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DS
🇺🇦Dmytro Shchegelskyi
ELO 1508
FormLWWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Shchegelskyi
YV
🇺🇦Yaroslav Vorsuliak
ELO 1483
FormLLLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Vorsuliak🌟Shchegelskyi rarely covers set handicap as favourite 22% (41)
Fair odds · Shchegelskyi
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H30-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.