12 Jul · 08:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Patalakha
ELO 1470
FormLLWWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Tymofeev
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1558
FormWLLLW
41%
59%
🌟Patalakha stays under total as underdog 70% (20)
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 75% · 1.33· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H9-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-0)