12 Jul · 16:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VH
🇺🇦Vit Herrmann
ELO 1518
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Merkl
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1524
FormWWWLL
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Herrmann🌟Herrmann covers set handicap as underdog 68% (28)
Fair odds · Merkl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~74 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+6
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.