12 Jul · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1500
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Shmyndra
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1450
FormWLLLL
55%
45%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Shmyndra rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (30)
Fair odds · Shmyndra
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+50
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)