12 Jul · 13:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1491
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Hura
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1450
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Smyrnov🌟Hura rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (59)
Fair odds · Hura
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~81 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+41
H2H21-28
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.