12 Jul · 07:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OV
🇺🇦Oleg Varlamov
ELO 1517
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1595
FormWWLWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H10-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-9)