12 Jul · 07:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YB
🇺🇦Yurii Bondarenko
ELO 1505
FormLWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Bondarenko
YM
🇺🇦Yaroslav Makovka
ELO 1439
FormWWLLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Bondarenko
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~80 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)