12 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
YM
🇺🇦Yaroslav Makovka
ELO 1439
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Makovka
YH
🇺🇦Yevhenii Holoborodko
ELO 1399
FormLLWLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Makovka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~85 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H5-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.