12 Jul · 10:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VS
🇺🇦Vasiliy Smyk
ELO 1463
FormLLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Patalakha
DP
🇺🇦Dmytro Patalakha
ELO 1470
FormLLWWW
49%
51%
🌟Patalakha rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (15)
Fair odds · Patalakha
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H23-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.