12 Jul · 10:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VD
🇺🇦Volodymyr Dobrovolskyi
ELO 1520
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kvak
IK
🇺🇦Ihor Kvak
ELO 1542
FormLWWWL
48%
52%
🌟Kvak stays under total as favourite 94% (16)
Fair odds · Kvak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~71 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H3-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.