12 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MC
🇺🇦Marcel Cmil
ELO 1487
FormLWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Holub
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1512
FormWLWLW
47%
53%
🌟Cmil covers set handicap as underdog 65% (40)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+25
H2H53-37
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.