12 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇺🇦Anton Shypilov
ELO 1418
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1450
FormWLLLL
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shypilov
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H42-40
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.