12 Jul · 09:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1558
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tymofeev
SY
🇺🇦Stefan Yakimenko
ELO 1523
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
🌟Yakimenko covers set handicap as underdog 64% (96)
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.