12 Jul · 10:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1491
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Shmyndra
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1500
FormWLLWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hura🌟Shmyndra rarely covers set handicap as favourite 20% (30)
Fair odds · Shmyndra
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~80 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.