12 Jul · 08:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SA
🇺🇦Serhii Aristarkhov
ELO 1670
FormLLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kasyanov
AK
🇺🇦Artem Kasyanov
ELO 1703
FormWLLLW
46%
54%
🔥 Underdog lean · Aristarkhov🌟Kasyanov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (24)
Fair odds · Kasyanov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H22-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.