12 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1515
FormLWLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lazebny
YS
🇺🇦Yurii Shmyndra
ELO 1500
FormWLLWW
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Shmyndra🌟Lazebny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (115)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.