12 Jul · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RL
🇺🇦Ruslan Lazebny
ELO 1515
FormLWLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lazebny
OH
🇺🇦Orest Hura
ELO 1491
FormLWWWL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Hura🌟Lazebny rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (115)
Fair odds · Lazebny
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~82 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H6-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.