12 Jul · 07:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KJ
🇺🇦Karel Jirousek
ELO 1479
FormWWLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jirousek
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Plyska
ELO 1453
FormWWLLL
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Plyska🌟Jirousek rarely covers set handicap as favourite 16% (31)
Fair odds · Jirousek
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H9-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.