12 Jul · 15:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Valeriy Melnik
ELO 1575
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Melnik
RC
🇺🇦Roman Cherevko
ELO 1536
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Melnik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H84-69
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.